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Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

by: M. Webster, A.P. Sokolov, J.M. Reilly, C.E. Forest, S. Paltsev, A. Schlosser, C. Wang, D. Kicklighter, M. Sarofim, J. Melillo, R.G. Prinn, and H.D. Jacoby

, Nr. Report 180 Cambridge, MA, USA: (2009) .

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URL:	http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=1989

Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity, is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.

BibTeX record

@techreport{mit-clim-report-09,
  abstract = {Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.},
  added-at = {2009-10-04T10:50:45.000+0200},
  address = {Cambridge, MA, USA},
  author = {Webster, M. and Sokolov, A.P. and Reilly, J.M. and Forest, C.E. and Paltsev, S. and Schlosser, A. and Wang, C. and Kicklighter, D. and Sarofim, M. and Melillo, J. and Prinn, R.G. and Jacoby, H.D.},
  biburl = {http://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2b3d74f9ea7593eef15e8ccd946ccdb86/ivan_herman},
  institution = {MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy on Global Change},
  interhash = {94ec7d06091d2799606d3268d865a11a},
  intrahash = {b3d74f9ea7593eef15e8ccd946ccdb86},
  keywords = {Climate Policy climate_change},
  number = {Report 180},
  timestamp = {2009-10-04T10:50:45.000+0200},
  title = {Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty},
  type = {Joint Program Report Series},
  url = {http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=1989},
  year = 2009
}

Endnote record

%0 Report
%1 mit-clim-report-09
%A Webster, M.
%A Sokolov, A.P.
%A Reilly, J.M.
%A Forest, C.E.
%A Paltsev, S.
%A Schlosser, A.
%A Wang, C.
%A Kicklighter, D.
%A Sarofim, M.
%A Melillo, J.
%A Prinn, R.G.
%A Jacoby, H.D.
%C Cambridge, MA, USA
%D 2009
%K 
%N Report 180
%T Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty
%U http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=1989
%X Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.

BibSonomy :: publication ::

Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

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Abstract

BibTeX record

Endnote record