%0 Journal Article %1 Shaner2018Geophysical %A Shaner, Matthew R. %A Davis, Steven J. %A Lewis, Nathan S. %A Caldeira, Ken %D 2018 %I The Royal Society of Chemistry %J Energy Environ. Sci. %K wind climatology energy solar renewables climate %N 4 %P 914--925 %R 10.1039/c7ee03029k %T Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power in the United States %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/c7ee03029k %V 11 %X We analyze 36 years of global, hourly weather data (1980-2015) to quantify the covariability of solar and wind resources as a function of time and location, over multi-decadal time scales and up to continental length scales. Assuming minimal excess generation, lossless transmission, and no other generation sources, the analysis indicates that wind-heavy or solar-heavy U.S.-scale power generation portfolios could in principle provide similar80\% of recent total annual U.S. electricity demand. However, to reliably meet 100\% of total annual electricity demand, seasonal cycles and unpredictable weather events require several weeks' worth of energy storage and/or the installation of much more capacity of solar and wind power than is routinely necessary to meet peak demand. To obtain similar80\% reliability, solar-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require sufficient energy storage to overcome the daily solar cycle, whereas wind-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require continental-scale transmission to exploit the geographic diversity of wind. Policy and planning aimed at providing a reliable electricity supply must therefore rigorously consider constraints associated with the geophysical variability of the solar and wind resource-even over continental scales.

@article{Shaner2018Geophysical, abstract = {We analyze 36 years of global, hourly weather data (1980-2015) to quantify the covariability of solar and wind resources as a function of time and location, over multi-decadal time scales and up to continental length scales. Assuming minimal excess generation, lossless transmission, and no other generation sources, the analysis indicates that wind-heavy or solar-heavy U.S.-scale power generation portfolios could in principle provide [similar]80\% of recent total annual U.S. electricity demand. However, to reliably meet 100\% of total annual electricity demand, seasonal cycles and unpredictable weather events require several weeks' worth of energy storage and/or the installation of much more capacity of solar and wind power than is routinely necessary to meet peak demand. To obtain [similar]80\% reliability, solar-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require sufficient energy storage to overcome the daily solar cycle, whereas wind-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require continental-scale transmission to exploit the geographic diversity of wind. Policy and planning aimed at providing a reliable electricity supply must therefore rigorously consider constraints associated with the geophysical variability of the solar and wind resource-even over continental scales.}, added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200}, author = {Shaner, Matthew R. and Davis, Steven J. and Lewis, Nathan S. and Caldeira, Ken}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2df2a67c4c000d4fc17b6989adbc5e90d/pbett}, citeulike-article-id = {14582793}, citeulike-attachment-1 = {Shaneretal2018geophysicalconstraints.pdf; /pdf/user/pbett/article/14582793/1136248/Shaneretal2018geophysicalconstraints.pdf; abcbe307e4029e280d865e0509ae2a4ff9c3c64d}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/c7ee03029k}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.rsc.org/Publishing/Journals/article.asp?doi=C7EE03029K}, doi = {10.1039/c7ee03029k}, file = {Shaneretal2018geophysicalconstraints.pdf}, interhash = {123127971858333330f7c64fa2bc834a}, intrahash = {df2a67c4c000d4fc17b6989adbc5e90d}, journal = {Energy Environ. Sci.}, keywords = {wind climatology energy solar renewables climate}, number = 4, pages = {914--925}, posted-at = {2018-05-09 09:25:38}, priority = {2}, publisher = {The Royal Society of Chemistry}, timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:39:21.000+0200}, title = {Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power in the United States}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/c7ee03029k}, volume = 11, year = 2018 }