One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known
plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence
interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics
gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur
within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform.
As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards
rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes
shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation
that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show
that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of
large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present
a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences
varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock
sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to
be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly
loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations.
So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state
seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and
underestimates it elsewhere.
%0 Journal Article
%1 stein_liu:2009
%A Stein, Seth
%A Liu, Mian
%D 2009
%I Nature Publishing Group
%J Nature
%K geophysics seismology
%N 7269
%P 87--89
%R 10.1038/nature08502
%T Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for
earthquake hazard assessment
%U http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08502
%V 462
%X One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known
plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence
interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics
gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur
within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform.
As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards
rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes
shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation
that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show
that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of
large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present
a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences
varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock
sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to
be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly
loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations.
So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state
seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and
underestimates it elsewhere.
@article{stein_liu:2009,
abstract = {One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known
plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence
interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics
gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur
within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform.
As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards
rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes
shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation
that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show
that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of
large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present
a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences
varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock
sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to
be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly
loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations.
So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state
seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and
underestimates it elsewhere.},
added-at = {2012-09-01T13:08:21.000+0200},
author = {Stein, Seth and Liu, Mian},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/237a44da2ef7e966056c2d60534b02320/nilsma},
day = 05,
doi = {10.1038/nature08502},
interhash = {799b4058e462ec84ac7014fd5fd4dfb6},
intrahash = {37a44da2ef7e966056c2d60534b02320},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {geophysics seismology},
month = nov,
number = 7269,
pages = {87--89},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
timestamp = {2021-02-09T13:24:20.000+0100},
title = {Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for
earthquake hazard assessment},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08502},
volume = 462,
year = 2009
}