%0 Journal Article %1 Meerson2009 %A Meerson, Baruch %A Sasorov, Pavel V. %D 2009 %K theoretical-ecology %P 4 %T WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations %U http://arxiv.org/abs/0906.5550 %X Stochastic effects may cause fade-out of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We develop WKB theory to determine the most probable path of the system toward epidemic fade-out and to evaluate the fade-out probability. The most probable path is an instanton-like orbit in the phase space of the underlying Hamiltonian flow.

@article{Meerson2009, abstract = {Stochastic effects may cause fade-out of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We develop WKB theory to determine the most probable path of the system toward epidemic fade-out and to evaluate the fade-out probability. The most probable path is an instanton-like orbit in the phase space of the underlying Hamiltonian flow.}, added-at = {2013-04-11T15:39:33.000+0200}, archiveprefix = {arXiv}, arxivid = {0906.5550}, author = {Meerson, Baruch and Sasorov, Pavel V.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2eca5e08701274801b5249c68affcac44/carl-boettiger}, eprint = {0906.5550}, file = {:home/cboettig/Documents/Mendeley/Unknown/2009/Meerson, Sasorov - 2009 - Unknown.pdf:pdf}, interhash = {bde5c2cef9287e93cca5832391ec5826}, intrahash = {eca5e08701274801b5249c68affcac44}, keywords = {theoretical-ecology}, month = jun, pages = 4, timestamp = {2013-04-11T15:42:55.000+0200}, title = {{WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations}}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/0906.5550}, year = 2009 }