%0 Journal Article %1 Mig04 %A Miguel, Edward %A Satyanath, Shanker %A Sergenti, Ernest %D 2004 %I The University of Chicago Press %J Journal of Political Economy %K conflict imported %N 4 %P 725-753 %T Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach %U http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/421174 %V 112 %X Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981–99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one‐half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.

@article{Mig04, abstract = {Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981–99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one‐half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.}, added-at = {2013-01-08T19:41:52.000+0100}, author = {Miguel, Edward and Satyanath, Shanker and Sergenti, Ernest}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/24ec4a33ae1f73bd77079bacdd468d9dd/tciarli}, file = {:/Users/Tum/Documents/Projects/Afghanistan/AREU/NRVA/Papers/EntrConflict/Edward_etal04JPE, Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict- An Instrumental Variables Approach.pdf:PDF}, interhash = {3f19fa61a36920c63d3fa31d8a03a965}, intrahash = {4ec4a33ae1f73bd77079bacdd468d9dd}, issn = {00223808}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, jstor_formatteddate = {August 2004}, keywords = {conflict imported}, language = {English}, number = 4, owner = {Tum}, pages = {725-753}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2013-01-08T19:42:03.000+0100}, title = {Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/421174}, volume = 112, year = 2004 }