Predicting intent to persist among adult undergraduate learners enrolled at a private university: The identification of key variables using a conceptual model of nontraditional student attrition
University of San Francisco, PhD Thesis, (1992)Abstract
This research was undertaken to identify the variables that discriminate between those individuals who intended to stay and those who intended to leave the University of San Francisco, a private institution. The identification of discriminant variables was made by surveying nontraditional-age (22 and older) undergraduates and analyzing the data by discriminant function analyses or t tests. Thirty-eight predictor variables were selected for investigation and grouped into 5 categories identified in Bean and Metzner's Conceptual Model: Background, Academic, Environmental, Psychological Outcomes, and Demographics. The analyses discriminated those individuals who intended to stay and leave USF the following semester in the Academic and Psychological Outcome categories, which explained 9\% and 17\% of variability between the two groups, and those who planned to graduate or leave before completing a degree in the Academic category, which explained 8\% of the variance between stayers and leavers. Two Psychological Outcome variables (utility of education for enjoyable work and satisfaction at USF) and two Academic variables (availability of courses and academic advisement) were the highest discriminators between those who planned to enroll next semester and those who intended to leave. Advisement and availability of classes also were the largest discriminators in the graduation intention group. When t tests were conducted, six Environmental variables (all three transfer opportunity variables, encouragement from parents, and both financial variables) were found to have statistical differences in both groups of stayers and leavers. In the graduation intention group, statistical differences also were found in two Background variables (credits earned at USF) and enrollment status and in five Psychological Outcome variables (all three utility variables and both student-role satisfaction variables). Prior credits earned and high-school grade point average were the Background variables that differed for enrollment the next semester. The implications from the research suggest that retention programs and interventions should address (a) student attitudes about a college education, (b) sources of encouragement for students with little support in their external environment, (c) exploration of alternative sources of financial aid, (d) convenient scheduling of classes and academic support services, and (e) academic advisement that is appropriate for the nontraditional learner.