Objectives Rampant urbanisation rates across the globe demand that we improve our understanding of how infectious diseases spread in modern urban landscapes, where larger and more connected host populations enhance the thriving capacity of certain pathogens. Methods A data-driven approach is employed to study the ability of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) to thrive in urban areas. The conduciveness of population size of urban areas and their socioeconomic characteristics are used as predictors of disease incidence, using confirmed-case data on STDs in the USA as a case study. Results A superlinear relation between STD incidence and urban population size is found, even after controlling for various socioeconomic aspects, suggesting that doubling the population size of a city results in an expected increase in STD incidence larger than twofold, provided that all other socioeconomic aspects remain fixed. Additionally, the percentage of African-Americans, income inequalities, education and per capita income are found to have a significant impact on the incidence of each of the three STDs studied. Conclusions STDs disproportionately concentrate in larger cities. Hence, larger urban areas merit extra prevention and treatment efforts, especially in lowincome and middle-income countries where urbanisation rates are higher.
Patterson-Lomba, O.; Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, United States; email: opatters@hsph.harvard.edu
affiliation
Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA, United States; Department of Epidemiology, Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States; Center for International Development, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States
%0 Journal Article
%1 Patterson-Lomba2015610
%A Patterson-Lomba, O.
%A Goldstein, E.
%A Gómez-LiÃ\copyrightvano, A.
%A Castillo-Chavez, C.
%A Towers, S.
%D 2015
%I BMJ Publishing Group
%J Sexually Transmitted Infections
%K Adult; African American; Americans; Article; Benefits; Cross-Sectional Density; Disease Diseases; Educational Factors; Female; Fringe Humans; Incidence; Income; Male; Outbreaks; Population Risk Salaries Sexually Socioeconomic States; Status; Studies; Transmitted United Urban adult; and area; benefit; chlamydiasis; clinical cross-sectional data; density; disease; education; educational epidemic; factor; female; fringe gonorrhea; growth; health human; incidence; income; insurance; journal; major male; morbidity; numerical population population, population; priority risk salary sexually size; socioeconomics; statistics status; study; syphilis; transmitted urban urbanization;
%N 8
%P 610-614
%R http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/sextrans-2014-051932
%T Per capita incidence of sexually transmitted infections increases systematically with urban population size: A cross-sectional study
%U http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/sextrans-2014-051932
%V 91
%X Objectives Rampant urbanisation rates across the globe demand that we improve our understanding of how infectious diseases spread in modern urban landscapes, where larger and more connected host populations enhance the thriving capacity of certain pathogens. Methods A data-driven approach is employed to study the ability of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) to thrive in urban areas. The conduciveness of population size of urban areas and their socioeconomic characteristics are used as predictors of disease incidence, using confirmed-case data on STDs in the USA as a case study. Results A superlinear relation between STD incidence and urban population size is found, even after controlling for various socioeconomic aspects, suggesting that doubling the population size of a city results in an expected increase in STD incidence larger than twofold, provided that all other socioeconomic aspects remain fixed. Additionally, the percentage of African-Americans, income inequalities, education and per capita income are found to have a significant impact on the incidence of each of the three STDs studied. Conclusions STDs disproportionately concentrate in larger cities. Hence, larger urban areas merit extra prevention and treatment efforts, especially in lowincome and middle-income countries where urbanisation rates are higher.
@article{Patterson-Lomba2015610,
abstract = {Objectives Rampant urbanisation rates across the globe demand that we improve our understanding of how infectious diseases spread in modern urban landscapes, where larger and more connected host populations enhance the thriving capacity of certain pathogens. Methods A data-driven approach is employed to study the ability of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) to thrive in urban areas. The conduciveness of population size of urban areas and their socioeconomic characteristics are used as predictors of disease incidence, using confirmed-case data on STDs in the USA as a case study. Results A superlinear relation between STD incidence and urban population size is found, even after controlling for various socioeconomic aspects, suggesting that doubling the population size of a city results in an expected increase in STD incidence larger than twofold, provided that all other socioeconomic aspects remain fixed. Additionally, the percentage of African-Americans, income inequalities, education and per capita income are found to have a significant impact on the incidence of each of the three STDs studied. Conclusions STDs disproportionately concentrate in larger cities. Hence, larger urban areas merit extra prevention and treatment efforts, especially in lowincome and middle-income countries where urbanisation rates are higher.},
added-at = {2017-11-10T22:48:29.000+0100},
affiliation = {Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA, United States; Department of Epidemiology, Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States; Center for International Development, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States},
author = {Patterson-Lomba, O. and Goldstein, E. and G{\~A}³mez-Li{\~A}{\copyright}vano, A. and Castillo-Chavez, C. and Towers, S.},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/268669e39e60fd672a0164625a2530586/ccchavez},
coden = {STINF},
correspondence_address1 = {Patterson-Lomba, O.; Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, United States; email: opatters@hsph.harvard.edu},
date-added = {2017-11-10 21:45:26 +0000},
date-modified = {2017-11-10 21:45:26 +0000},
document_type = {Article},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/sextrans-2014-051932},
interhash = {eac947760b249983bcb7c704cf175cc1},
intrahash = {68669e39e60fd672a0164625a2530586},
issn = {13684973},
journal = {Sexually Transmitted Infections},
keywords = {Adult; African American; Americans; Article; Benefits; Cross-Sectional Density; Disease Diseases; Educational Factors; Female; Fringe Humans; Incidence; Income; Male; Outbreaks; Population Risk Salaries Sexually Socioeconomic States; Status; Studies; Transmitted United Urban adult; and area; benefit; chlamydiasis; clinical cross-sectional data; density; disease; education; educational epidemic; factor; female; fringe gonorrhea; growth; health human; incidence; income; insurance; journal; major male; morbidity; numerical population population, population; priority risk salary sexually size; socioeconomics; statistics status; study; syphilis; transmitted urban urbanization;},
language = {English},
number = 8,
pages = {610-614},
publisher = {BMJ Publishing Group},
pubmed_id = {25921021},
timestamp = {2017-11-10T22:48:29.000+0100},
title = {Per capita incidence of sexually transmitted infections increases systematically with urban population size: A cross-sectional study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/sextrans-2014-051932},
volume = 91,
year = 2015
}