%0 Journal Article %1 pohlmann2013predictability %A Pohlmann, Holger %A Smith, Doug M. %A Balmaseda, Magdalena A. %A Keenlyside, Noel S. %A Masina, Simona %A Matei, Daniela %A Müller, Wolfgang A. %A Rogel, Philippe %D 2013 %J Climate Dynamics %K depresys moc-var paper-naoraip paper-review-var %N 3 %P 775--785 %R 10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6 %T Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6 %V 41 %X Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of observations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal correlates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3--6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.

@article{pohlmann2013predictability, abstract = {Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of observations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45{\textdegree}N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal correlates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3--6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.}, added-at = {2018-08-23T14:48:06.000+0200}, author = {Pohlmann, Holger and Smith, Doug M. and Balmaseda, Magdalena A. and Keenlyside, Noel S. and Masina, Simona and Matei, Daniela and M{\"u}ller, Wolfgang A. and Rogel, Philippe}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/289e05d84821df5f20f2119dbbdedaae8/laura.jackson}, day = 01, description = {Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system | SpringerLink}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6}, interhash = {87b9539e684d70ac1be9ab9a1c646258}, intrahash = {89e05d84821df5f20f2119dbbdedaae8}, issn = {1432-0894}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, keywords = {depresys moc-var paper-naoraip paper-review-var}, month = aug, number = 3, pages = {775--785}, timestamp = {2020-09-14T17:25:11.000+0200}, title = {Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6}, volume = 41, year = 2013 }