This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range
ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are
outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office
monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the
development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of
the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates
about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.
%0 Generic
%1 Palmer2018ECMWF
%A Palmer, Tim
%D 2018
%K seasonal decadal review monthly
%T The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years
%U http://arxiv.org/abs/1803.06940
%X This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range
ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are
outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office
monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the
development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of
the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates
about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.
@misc{Palmer2018ECMWF,
abstract = {This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range
ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are
outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office
monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the
development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of
the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates
about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.},
added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200},
archiveprefix = {arXiv},
author = {Palmer, Tim},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/294e53ca588fd29201afda0af0605a1fc/pbett},
citeulike-article-id = {14551777},
citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1803.06940},
citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.06940},
day = 16,
eprint = {1803.06940},
interhash = {b3f4d9580c42dc0e04d691215332619f},
intrahash = {94e53ca588fd29201afda0af0605a1fc},
keywords = {seasonal decadal review monthly},
month = mar,
posted-at = {2018-03-20 08:32:34},
priority = {2},
timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:39:21.000+0200},
title = {The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years},
url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1803.06940},
year = 2018
}