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Skeptical combination of experimental results using JAGS/rjags with application to the K$^\pm$ mass determination

. (2020)cite arxiv:2001.03466Comment: 40 pages, 16 figures.

Abstract

The question of how to combine experimental results that `appear' to be in mutual disagreement, treated in detail years ago in a previous paper, is revisited. The first novelty of the present note is the explicit use of graphical models, in order to make the deterministic and probabilistic links between the variables of interest more evident. Then, instead of aiming for results in closed formulae, the integrals of interest are evaluated by \em Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, with the algorithms (typically Gibbs Sampler) implemented in the package JAGS ("Just Another Gibbs Sampler"). For convenience, the JAGS functions are called from R scripts, thus gaining the advantage given by the rich collection of mathematical, statistical and graphical functions included in the R installation. The results of the previous paper are thus easily re-obtained and the method is applied to the determination of the charged kaon mass. This note, based on lectures to PhD students and young researchers has been written with a didactic touch, and the relevant JAGS/rjags code is provided. (A curious bias arising from the sequential application of the $\chi^2/\nu$ scaling prescription to 'apparently' discrepant results, found here, will be discussed in more detail in a separate paper.)

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Skeptical combination of experimental results using JAGS/rjags with application to the K$^{\pm}$ mass determination

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dagostini2020skeptical
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