%0 Book Section %1 statphys23_0945 %A Mizuno, T. %A Toriyama, M. %A Terano, T. %A Takayasu, M. %B Abstract Book of the XXIII IUPAP International Conference on Statistical Physics %C Genova, Italy %D 2007 %E Pietronero, Luciano %E Loreto, Vittorio %E Zapperi, Stefano %K cycle econophysics life logit marketing model product statphys23 topic-11 %T Product life cycle in convenience stores %U http://st23.statphys23.org/webservices/abstract/preview_pop.php?ID_PAPER=945 %X We have a big database of point of sale for one of the major convenience-store chain in Japan. We can observe who bought what, where, when by using the database. We focus on a product life cycle. Generally, the cycle is surprisingly short. For example, sale of about 65\% product of rice balls is discontinued within three months. We show that the cycle depends on a number of repeat customers. Fig.1 shows time series of market share. Both products are plum rice balls. The product A has been bought since the release date t=40. However, the market share of the product B was immediately lost after the release date t=25. In order to investigate a difference between the product A and B, we introduce a conditional probability, P$_k$(N$_i,t$=1$$N$_i,t - 1$=1). Here, N$_i,t$ is 1 when a customer i buy a product k in t-th shopping of rice ball. Therefore, P$_k$(N$_i,t$=1$$N$_i,t - 1$=1) expresses a probability that the product k is chosen continuously. The product A with long life cycle indicates a high probability, P$_A$(N$_i,t$=1$$N$_i,t - 1$=1)=0.5. However, the product B with short life cycle expresses a low probability, P$_B$(N$_i,t$=1$ $N$_i,t - 1$=1)=0.2. As shown in Fig.2 we can find that there is a correlation between the life cycle $$ and the probability $łeft P \right_ $. In this conference, we show the probability in more detail and describe it by applying Logit model.

@incollection{statphys23_0945, abstract = {We have a big database of point of sale for one of the major convenience-store chain in Japan. We can observe who bought what, where, when by using the database. We focus on a product life cycle. Generally, the cycle is surprisingly short. For example, sale of about 65{\%} product of rice balls is discontinued within three months. We show that the cycle depends on a number of repeat customers. Fig.1 shows time series of market share. Both products are plum rice balls. The product A has been bought since the release date t=40. However, the market share of the product B was immediately lost after the release date t=25. In order to investigate a difference between the product A and B, we introduce a conditional probability, P$_{k}$(N$_{i,t}$=1$\vert $N$_{i,t - 1}$=1). Here, N$_{i,t}$ is 1 when a customer i buy a product k in t-th shopping of rice ball. Therefore, P$_{k}$(N$_{i,t}$=1$\vert $N$_{i,t - 1}$=1) expresses a probability that the product k is chosen continuously. The product A with long life cycle indicates a high probability, P$_{A}$(N$_{i,t}$=1$\vert $N$_{i,t - 1}$=1)=0.5. However, the product B with short life cycle expresses a low probability, P$_{B}$(N$_{i,t}$=1$\vert $N$_{i,t - 1}$=1)=0.2. As shown in Fig.2 we can find that there is a correlation between the life cycle $\tau $ and the probability $\left\langle P \right\rangle _{ \ge \tau } $. In this conference, we show the probability in more detail and describe it by applying Logit model.}, added-at = {2007-06-20T10:16:09.000+0200}, address = {Genova, Italy}, author = {Mizuno, T. and Toriyama, M. and Terano, T. and Takayasu, M.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2b88f7b17ec1d6d2c6c74bc8f8e4d2c18/statphys23}, booktitle = {Abstract Book of the XXIII IUPAP International Conference on Statistical Physics}, editor = {Pietronero, Luciano and Loreto, Vittorio and Zapperi, Stefano}, interhash = {8d1d9dcb7e02395642748ecdd5d85d66}, intrahash = {b88f7b17ec1d6d2c6c74bc8f8e4d2c18}, keywords = {cycle econophysics life logit marketing model product statphys23 topic-11}, month = {9-13 July}, timestamp = {2007-06-20T10:16:35.000+0200}, title = {Product life cycle in convenience stores}, url = {http://st23.statphys23.org/webservices/abstract/preview_pop.php?ID_PAPER=945}, year = 2007 }