Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning
The American Economic Review, 99 (5):
1899--1924 (Dezember 2009)DOI: 10.1257/aer.99.5.1899
Zusammenfassung
New ideas, products, and practices take time to diffuse, a fact that is often attributed to some form of heterogeneity among potential adopters. This paper examines three broad classes of diffusion models&\#8212;contagion, social influence, and social learning&\#8212;and shows how to incorporate heterogeneity into each at a high level of generality without losing analytical tractability. Each type of model leaves a characteristic &\#8220;footprint&\#8221; on the shape of the adoption curve which provides a basis for discriminating empirically between them. The approach is illustrated using the classic study of Ryan and Gross (1943) on the diffusion of hybrid corn.