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Destabilizing Dynamic Covert Networks

. Proceedings of the 8th International Command and Control Research, Vienna, VA, Evidence Based Research, (2003)

Abstract

Most commanders, politicians and intelligence agents have at least an intuitive understanding of hierarchies and how to affect their behavior. However, covert organizations, such as terrorist organizations, have network structures that are distinct from those in typical hierarchical organizations. In particular, they tend to be more cellular and distributed. This makes it difficult to apply the lessons of experience in determining how best to destabilize these groups. This problem is further compounded by the vast quantities of, yet incomplete, information. What is needed is a set of tools and an approach to assessing destabilization strategies that takes these difficulties in to account and provides analysts with guidance in assessing destabilization tactics. Such an approach is forwarded in this paper. In addition, initial lessons learned are discussed. The particular approach is extensible and scales well to groups composed of 1000’s of members.

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