Celebrated for disproving the traditional view that lack of oxygen at birth (perinatal asphyxia) contributes significantly to cerebral palsy, a 1986 New England Journal of Medicine article by Karin Nelson and Jonas Ellenberg engineered a new consensus in the medical community: that lack of oxygen at birth rarely causes cerebral palsy. We demonstrate that the article's central argument relies on straightforwardly fallacious statistical reasoning, and we discuss significant implications--e.g. how carefully fetuses are monitored during labor and delivery, expert testimony in malpractice cases, and public policy decisions.
%0 Journal Article
%1 Shier2006
%A Shier, David
%A Tilson, J. Lee
%D 2006
%J Med Health Care Philos
%K Asphyxia Neonatorum; Biomedical Research; Birth Injuries; Cerebral Palsy; Humans; Infant, Newborn; Models, Statistical
%N 2
%P 243--247
%R 10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2
%T The Temporal Stage fallacy: A novel statistical fallacy in the medical literature.
%U http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2
%V 9
%X Celebrated for disproving the traditional view that lack of oxygen at birth (perinatal asphyxia) contributes significantly to cerebral palsy, a 1986 New England Journal of Medicine article by Karin Nelson and Jonas Ellenberg engineered a new consensus in the medical community: that lack of oxygen at birth rarely causes cerebral palsy. We demonstrate that the article's central argument relies on straightforwardly fallacious statistical reasoning, and we discuss significant implications--e.g. how carefully fetuses are monitored during labor and delivery, expert testimony in malpractice cases, and public policy decisions.
@article{Shier2006,
abstract = {Celebrated for disproving the traditional view that lack of oxygen at birth (perinatal asphyxia) contributes significantly to cerebral palsy, a 1986 New England Journal of Medicine article by Karin Nelson and Jonas Ellenberg engineered a new consensus in the medical community: that lack of oxygen at birth rarely causes cerebral palsy. We demonstrate that the article's central argument relies on straightforwardly fallacious statistical reasoning, and we discuss significant implications--e.g. how carefully fetuses are monitored during labor and delivery, expert testimony in malpractice cases, and public policy decisions.},
added-at = {2014-07-19T21:21:21.000+0200},
author = {Shier, David and Tilson, J. Lee},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2e8527a1b3377aef7e02e48c331ca2786/ar0berts},
doi = {10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2},
groups = {public},
interhash = {9fc6dc286e5b409b71275fef0ca5c73f},
intrahash = {e8527a1b3377aef7e02e48c331ca2786},
journal = {Med Health Care Philos},
keywords = {Asphyxia Neonatorum; Biomedical Research; Birth Injuries; Cerebral Palsy; Humans; Infant, Newborn; Models, Statistical},
number = 2,
pages = {243--247},
pmid = {16850203},
timestamp = {2014-07-19T21:21:21.000+0200},
title = {The Temporal Stage fallacy: A novel statistical fallacy in the medical literature.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2},
username = {ar0berts},
volume = 9,
year = 2006
}