Modulation of Economic Losses From European Floods by the North Atlantic Oscillation
Geophysical Research Letters, (March 2019)DOI: 10.1029/2019gl081956
Abstract
The space‐time structure of flood losses is arguably related to large‐scale climatic patterns; however, this interconnection is not always well understood. Here we show that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) correlates with the occurrence of catastrophic floods across Europe and the associated economic losses. The analysis reveals that in Northern Europe the majority of historic winter floods occurred during a positive NAO state, whereas the majority of summer floods occurred during a negative state. Analogous, but stronger, patterns can be observed in individual Atlantic countries. Through the application of a state‐of‐the‐art catastrophe model, we find that there is a statistically significant relationship between the NAO and flood losses. Critically, we observe that the average flood loss during opposite NAO states can differ by up to 50%. These results can inform financial preparedness and disaster fund allocation, as stakeholders, such as governments and insurance companies, can distribute resources more effectively.