%0 Journal Article %1 klemm2018assessing %A Klemm, Toni %A McPherson, Renee A. %D 2018 %J Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology %K agriculture climateservices crop food seasonal %R 10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0246.1 %T Assessing Decision Timing and Seasonal Climate Forecast Needs of Winter Wheat Producers in the South-Central U.S. %X Agricultural decision making that adapts to climate variability is essential to global food security. Crop production can be severely impacted by drought, flood, and heat, as seen in recent years in parts of the United States. Seasonal climate forecasts can help producers reduce crop losses, but many nationwide, publicly available seasonal forecasts currently lack relevance for agricultural producers, in part, because they do not reflect their decision needs. This study examines the seasonal forecast needs of winter wheat producers in the Southern Great Plains to understand what climate information is most useful and what lead times are most relevant for decision making. An online survey of 119 agricultural advisers, cooperative extension agents in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Colorado, was conducted that gave insights into producers’ preferences for forecast elements, what weather and climate extremes have the most impact on decision making, and the decision timing of major farm practices. The survey participants indicated that winter wheat growers were not only interested in directly modeled variables, such as total monthly rainfall, but also derived elements, such as consecutive number of dry days. Moreover, these agricultural advisors perceived that winter wheat producers needed seasonal climate forecasts to have zero to 2.5 months lead time — the planning lead time for major farm practices, like planting or harvesting. A forecast calendar and monthly rankings for forecast elements were created that can guide forecasters and advisers as they develop decision tools for winter wheat producers and that can serve as a template for other time-sensitive decision tools developed for stakeholder communities.

@article{klemm2018assessing, abstract = {Agricultural decision making that adapts to climate variability is essential to global food security. Crop production can be severely impacted by drought, flood, and heat, as seen in recent years in parts of the United States. Seasonal climate forecasts can help producers reduce crop losses, but many nationwide, publicly available seasonal forecasts currently lack relevance for agricultural producers, in part, because they do not reflect their decision needs. This study examines the seasonal forecast needs of winter wheat producers in the Southern Great Plains to understand what climate information is most useful and what lead times are most relevant for decision making. An online survey of 119 agricultural advisers, cooperative extension agents in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Colorado, was conducted that gave insights into producers’ preferences for forecast elements, what weather and climate extremes have the most impact on decision making, and the decision timing of major farm practices. The survey participants indicated that winter wheat growers were not only interested in directly modeled variables, such as total monthly rainfall, but also derived elements, such as consecutive number of dry days. Moreover, these agricultural advisors perceived that winter wheat producers needed seasonal climate forecasts to have zero to 2.5 months lead time — the planning lead time for major farm practices, like planting or harvesting. A forecast calendar and monthly rankings for forecast elements were created that can guide forecasters and advisers as they develop decision tools for winter wheat producers and that can serve as a template for other time-sensitive decision tools developed for stakeholder communities.}, added-at = {2018-07-25T09:03:14.000+0200}, author = {Klemm, Toni and McPherson, Renee A.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/28924dd32213f9127e30e9460418d107b/pbett}, description = {Assessing Decision Timing and Seasonal Climate Forecast Needs of Winter Wheat Producers in the South-Central U.S.: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology: Early Online Release}, doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0246.1}, interhash = {8794a83d52b3be5c5df88f3d9731127a}, intrahash = {8924dd32213f9127e30e9460418d107b}, journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology}, keywords = {agriculture climateservices crop food seasonal}, month = {july}, timestamp = {2018-07-25T09:03:14.000+0200}, title = {Assessing Decision Timing and Seasonal Climate Forecast Needs of Winter Wheat Producers in the South-Central U.S.}, year = 2018 }