Abstract
This paper discusses the distribution of certainty around General Circulation Models
(GCMs) â computer models used to project possible global climatic changes
due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. It examines the trope of distance
underpinning Donald MacKenzieâs concept of âcertainty
troughâ, and calls for a more multi-dimensional and dynamic
conceptualization of how uncertainty is distributed around technology. The certainty
trough describes the level of certainty attached to particular technoscientific
constructions as distance increases from the site of knowledge production, and
proposes that producers of a given technology and its products are the best judges
of their accuracy. Processes and dynamics associated with GCM modeling challenge the
simplicity of the certainty trough diagram, mainly because of difficulties with
distinguishing between knowledge producers and users, and because GCMs involve
multiple sites of production. This case study also challenges the assumption that
knowledge producers always are the best judges of the accuracy of their models.
Drawing on participant observation and interviews with climate modelers and the
atmospheric scientists with whom they interact, the study discusses how modelers,
and to some extent knowledge producers in general, are sometimes less able than some
users to identify shortcomings of their models.
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