Abstract
Multi-stage mark–recapture (MSMR) statistics provide the best method for
estimating the transition probabilities in matrix population models when individual capture
history data are available. In this paper, we improve the method in four major ways. We
use a Markov chain formulation of the life cycle to express the likelihood functions in
matrix form, which makes numerical calculations simpler. We introduce a method to incorporate
capture histories with uncertain stage and sex identifications, which allows the
use of capture history data with incomplete information. We introduce a simple function
that allows multinomial transition probabilities to be written as functions of covariates (time
or environmental factors). Finally, we show how to convert transition probabilities estimated
by the MSMR method into a matrix population model. These methods are applied to data
on the North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis).
Key words: capture–recapture studies; Eubalaena glacialis; multi-stage mark–recapture statistics;
Markov chain; matrix population models; North Atlantic right whale; population projection matrix;
survival probability; transition probability.
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