Abstract
A series of four studies explored how the ability to comprehend and
transform probability numbers relates to performance on judgment
and decision tasks. On the surface, the tasks in the four studies
appear to be widely different; at a conceptual level, however, they
all involve processing numbers and the potential to show an influence
of affect. Findings were consistent with highly numerate individuals
being more likely to retrieve and use appropriate numerical principles,
thus making themselves less susceptible to framing effects, compared
with less numerate individuals. In addition, the highly numerate
tended to draw different (generally stronger or more precise) affective
meaning from numbers and numerical comparisons, and their affective
responses were more precise. Although generally helpful, this tendency
may sometimes lead to worse decisions. The less numerate were influenced
more by competing, irrelevant affective considerations. Analyses
showed that the effect of numeracy was not due to general intelligence.
Numerical ability appears to matter to judgments and decisions in
important ways.
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