Abstract
News prediction retrieval has recently emerged as the task of retrieving <i>predictions</i> related to a given news story (or a query). Predictions are defined as sentences containing time references to future events. Such future-related information is crucially important for understanding the temporal development of news stories, as well as strategies planning and risk management. The aforementioned work has been shown to retrieve a significant number of relevant predictions. However, only a certain news topics achieve good retrieval effectiveness. In this paper, we study how to determine the difficulty in retrieving predictions for a given news story. More precisely, we address the <i>query difficulty estimation</i> problem for news prediction retrieval. We propose different entity-based predictors used for classifying queries into two classes, namely, <i>Easy</i> and <i>Difficult</i>. Our prediction model is based on a machine learning approach. Through experiments on real-world data, we show that our proposed approach can predict query difficulty with high accuracy.
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