Sunshine levels incident in the plane of a photovoltaic panel are
the overriding influence on electrical output, and modelling solar
irradiance is therefore an essential step in the design and performance
prediction of solar energy conversion systems. This study aims to
assess the eÂcacy of SARIMA models and their potential for short-term
prediction at a northerly latitude. Data was collected from a monitoring
site on the roof of a 5-storey building at a city centre location
in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK (latitude 558N). Hourly and ten minute
data relating to 13 and 15 day periods in two winters (1993, 1994)
and two summers (1994, 1995) were utilised. Univariate stochastic
modelling, using SARIMA models, is carried out for horizontal and
south facing vertical solar irradiance. Results showed that these
models provided a good fit for the ten minute averaged horizontal
and vertical irradiance, with, on average, 82% and 85% of total variation
being accounted for respectively. Use of hourly averaged data in
these models gave a substantial reduction in the fit. Models for
the winter data were a poorer fit than for summer for both orientations.
It is concluded that the SARIMA approach can be used to develop prediction
methods and to study rapid and large changes in PV output from extensive
areas of solar cladding.
%0 Journal Article
%1 Craggs.Conway.ea1999
%A Craggs, C.
%A Conway, E. M.
%A Pearsall, N. M.
%D 1999
%J Renewable Energy
%K SARIMA, Stochastic irradiance, methods, modelling prediction solar
%P 445--463
%T Stochastic modelling of solar irradiance on horizontal and vertical
planes at a northerly location
%V 18
%X Sunshine levels incident in the plane of a photovoltaic panel are
the overriding influence on electrical output, and modelling solar
irradiance is therefore an essential step in the design and performance
prediction of solar energy conversion systems. This study aims to
assess the eÂcacy of SARIMA models and their potential for short-term
prediction at a northerly latitude. Data was collected from a monitoring
site on the roof of a 5-storey building at a city centre location
in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK (latitude 558N). Hourly and ten minute
data relating to 13 and 15 day periods in two winters (1993, 1994)
and two summers (1994, 1995) were utilised. Univariate stochastic
modelling, using SARIMA models, is carried out for horizontal and
south facing vertical solar irradiance. Results showed that these
models provided a good fit for the ten minute averaged horizontal
and vertical irradiance, with, on average, 82% and 85% of total variation
being accounted for respectively. Use of hourly averaged data in
these models gave a substantial reduction in the fit. Models for
the winter data were a poorer fit than for summer for both orientations.
It is concluded that the SARIMA approach can be used to develop prediction
methods and to study rapid and large changes in PV output from extensive
areas of solar cladding.
@article{Craggs.Conway.ea1999,
abstract = {Sunshine levels incident in the plane of a photovoltaic panel are
the overriding influence on electrical output, and modelling solar
irradiance is therefore an essential step in the design and performance
prediction of solar energy conversion systems. This study aims to
assess the eÂcacy of SARIMA models and their potential for short-term
prediction at a northerly latitude. Data was collected from a monitoring
site on the roof of a 5-storey building at a city centre location
in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK (latitude 558N). Hourly and ten minute
data relating to 13 and 15 day periods in two winters (1993, 1994)
and two summers (1994, 1995) were utilised. Univariate stochastic
modelling, using SARIMA models, is carried out for horizontal and
south facing vertical solar irradiance. Results showed that these
models provided a good fit for the ten minute averaged horizontal
and vertical irradiance, with, on average, 82% and 85% of total variation
being accounted for respectively. Use of hourly averaged data in
these models gave a substantial reduction in the fit. Models for
the winter data were a poorer fit than for summer for both orientations.
It is concluded that the SARIMA approach can be used to develop prediction
methods and to study rapid and large changes in PV output from extensive
areas of solar cladding.},
added-at = {2011-09-01T13:26:03.000+0200},
author = {Craggs, C. and Conway, E. M. and Pearsall, N. M.},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/25228aa0a38deeb1f76f56150170931c7/procomun},
file = {Craggs.Conway.ea1999.pdf:Craggs.Conway.ea1999.pdf:PDF},
interhash = {471550db7db2288985864384b3b818ae},
intrahash = {5228aa0a38deeb1f76f56150170931c7},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
keywords = {SARIMA, Stochastic irradiance, methods, modelling prediction solar},
owner = {oscar},
pages = {445--463},
refid = {Craggs.Conway.ea1999},
timestamp = {2011-09-02T08:25:25.000+0200},
title = {Stochastic modelling of solar irradiance on horizontal and vertical
planes at a northerly location},
volume = 18,
year = 1999
}