Abstract
Elementary education, as the foundation to system of education is very necessary to predict the retention ability of pupils
in order to be guided as school administrators, teachers and parents to monitor and improve on the methodology to be used
to foster the pupil‟s future. This in turn, contributes to the success of our pupils in their academic pursuits. In order to
make such prediction, constructing mathematical models is one of the most effective and appropriate method. Among
many approaches, fuzzy logic models are most appropriate for this. In this research, fuzzy logic model was constructed
named Retention Prediction Model (RPM) using the platform of MATLAB 7.6.0 R2008a to model data of pupils‟ of their
terminal examination result conducted in their schools which involves public and private Nursery and primary schools in
Ikenne Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. By using this model, Fuzzy membership function and fuzzy rules
were created to increase the efficiency of the model. Data of the previous three sessions of the present Basic 4 pupils were
used, that is, Basic 1, 2 and 3. From the result of the model, a pupil‟s retention level was predicted to be high for the next
three years from Basic 4.
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