%0 Journal Article %1 Lindegren2010 %A Lindegren, Martin %A Möllmann, Christian %A Nielsen, Anders %A Brander, Keith %A Mackenzie, Brian R %A Stenseth, Nils Chr %D 2010 %J Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences %K theoretical-ecology %R 10.1098/rspb.2010.0353 %T Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod. %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20236982 %X Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios. %Z Intriguing approach,more in spirit of äpplied systems analysis" rather than classic theoretical modeling. all and all somewhat worrying.

@article{Lindegren2010, abstract = {Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.}, added-at = {2013-04-11T15:39:33.000+0200}, annote = {Intriguing approach,more in spirit of "applied systems analysis" rather than classic theoretical modeling. all and all somewhat worrying. }, author = {Lindegren, Martin and M\"{o}llmann, Christian and Nielsen, Anders and Brander, Keith and Mackenzie, Brian R and Stenseth, Nils Chr}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2583aac987b8b5b45dddb4ec05413b01e/carl-boettiger}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2010.0353}, file = {:home/cboettig/Documents/Mendeley/Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences/2010/Lindegren et al. - 2010 - Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences.pdf:pdf}, interhash = {a161496ea1f94e74fc4139b565f634e6}, intrahash = {583aac987b8b5b45dddb4ec05413b01e}, issn = {1471-2954}, journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, keywords = {theoretical-ecology}, month = mar, pmid = {20236982}, timestamp = {2013-04-11T15:42:55.000+0200}, title = {{Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod.}}, url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20236982}, year = 2010 }