Abstract
This paper explores energy and physical resource limitations to transitioning
from fossil fuels to the large-scale generation of electricity with
photovoltaic arrays. The model finds that business as usual models,
which involve growth rates in world electricity demand of between
2% and 3.2% p.a., exhibit severe material difficulties before the
end of this century. If the growth rate is lowered to 1% p.a., then
it may be possible to reach the year 2100 before such difficulties,
but it is likely that material constraints will occur early the next
century. Steady state scenarios show that silicon based photovoltaic
panels could, however, displace fossil fuels before the middle of
the century, providing around the same order of magnitude as present
(2010) world electricity demand. Scenarios also show that outcomes
will be highly dependent upon the rate of improvement of photovoltaic
technologies. The analysis does not contend that silicon PV technology
is the only technology that will or can be adopted, but as the embodied
energy content per kWh generated of this technology is similar to
other renewable technologies, such as other solar technologies and
wind, it can provide a baseline for examining a transition to a mixture
of renewable energy sources.
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