Abstract
When searching for a new resonance somewhere in a possible mass range, the
significance of observing a local excess of events must take into account the
probability of observing such an excess anywhere in the range. This is the so
called "look elsewhere effect". The effect can be quantified in terms of a
trial factor, which is the ratio between the probability of observing the
excess at some fixed mass point, to the probability of observing it anywhere in
the range. We propose a simple and fast procedure for estimating the trial
factor, based on earlier results by Davies. We show that asymptotically, the
trial factor grows linearly with the (fixed mass) significance.
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