%0 Journal Article %1 Renggli2011Skill %A Renggli, Dominik %A Leckebusch, Gregor C. %A Ulbrich, Uwe %A Gleixner, Stephanie N. %A Faust, Eberhard %D 2011 %I American Meteorological Society %J Mon. Wea. Rev. %K stormtracks storms seasonal %N 9 %P 3052--3068 %R 10.1175/2011mwr3518.1 %T The Skill of Seasonal Ensemble Prediction Systems to Forecast Wintertime Windstorm Frequency over the North Atlantic and Europe %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011mwr3518.1 %V 139 %X AbstractThe science of seasonal predictions has advanced considerably in the last decade. Today, operational predictions are generated by several institutions, especially for variables such as (sea) surface temperatures and precipitation. In contrast, few studies have been conducted on the seasonal predictability of extreme meteorological events such as European windstorms in winter. In this study, the predictive skill of extratropical wintertime windstorms in the North Atlantic/European region is explored in sets of seasonal hindcast ensembles from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) and the ENSEMBLE-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts (ENSEMBLES) projects.The observed temporal and spatial climatological distributions of these windstorms are reasonably well reproduced in the hindcast data. Using hindcasts starting on 1 November, significant predictive skill is found for the December?February windstorm frequency in the period 1980?2001, but also for the January?April storm frequency. Specifically, the model suite run at Météo France shows consistently high skill.Some aspects of the variability of skill are discussed. Predictive skill in the 1980?2001 period is usually higher than for the 1960?2001 period. Furthermore, the level of skill turns out to be related to the storm frequency of a given winter. Generally, winters with high storm frequency are better predicted than winters with medium storm frequency. Physical mechanisms potentially leading to such a variability of skill are discussed.

@article{Renggli2011Skill, abstract = {AbstractThe science of seasonal predictions has advanced considerably in the last decade. Today, operational predictions are generated by several institutions, especially for variables such as (sea) surface temperatures and precipitation. In contrast, few studies have been conducted on the seasonal predictability of extreme meteorological events such as European windstorms in winter. In this study, the predictive skill of extratropical wintertime windstorms in the North Atlantic/European region is explored in sets of seasonal hindcast ensembles from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) and the ENSEMBLE-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts (ENSEMBLES) projects.The observed temporal and spatial climatological distributions of these windstorms are reasonably well reproduced in the hindcast data. Using hindcasts starting on 1 November, significant predictive skill is found for the December?February windstorm frequency in the period 1980?2001, but also for the January?April storm frequency. Specifically, the model suite run at M\'{e}t\'{e}o France shows consistently high skill.Some aspects of the variability of skill are discussed. Predictive skill in the 1980?2001 period is usually higher than for the 1960?2001 period. Furthermore, the level of skill turns out to be related to the storm frequency of a given winter. Generally, winters with high storm frequency are better predicted than winters with medium storm frequency. Physical mechanisms potentially leading to such a variability of skill are discussed.}, added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200}, author = {Renggli, Dominik and Leckebusch, Gregor C. and Ulbrich, Uwe and Gleixner, Stephanie N. and Faust, Eberhard}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2a0b69b3f591041f7532feac443a6b487/pbett}, citeulike-article-id = {14172608}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011MWR3518.1}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011mwr3518.1}, comment = {(private-note)This was the subject of Dominik Renggli's PhD thesis (also 2011) Gregor Leckebusch \& co. have gone on to look at this in more detail, and are (2015+) working with the MO on seasonal predictability of storms in GloSea5.}, day = 4, doi = {10.1175/2011mwr3518.1}, interhash = {ad4ff3a0a8d14ef0a71dc24b7e7fe614}, intrahash = {a0b69b3f591041f7532feac443a6b487}, journal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, keywords = {stormtracks storms seasonal}, month = apr, number = 9, pages = {3052--3068}, posted-at = {2016-10-27 13:51:45}, priority = {2}, publisher = {American Meteorological Society}, timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:36:38.000+0200}, title = {The Skill of Seasonal Ensemble Prediction Systems to Forecast Wintertime Windstorm Frequency over the North Atlantic and Europe}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011mwr3518.1}, volume = 139, year = 2011 }