Article,

Cascading Failures in Bi-partite Graphs: Model for Systemic Risk Propagation

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Scientific Reports, (Feb 5, 2013)
DOI: 10.1038/srep01219

Abstract

In order to design complex networks that are robust and sustainable, we must understand systemic risk. As economic systems become increasingly interconnected, for example, a shock in a single financial network can provoke cascading failures throughout the system. The widespread effects of the current EU debt crisis and the 2008 world financial crisis occur because financial systems are characterized by complex relations that allow a local crisis to spread dramatically. We study US commercial bank balance sheet data and design a bi-partite banking network composed of (i) banks and (ii) bank assets. We propose a cascading failure model to simulate the crisis spreading process in a bi-partite banking network. We test our model using 2007 data to analyze failed banks. We find that, within realistic parameters, our model identifies a significant portion of the actual failed banks from the FDIC failed bank database from 2008 to 2011.

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