Article,
Characterising two-pathogen competition in spatially structured environments
Scientific Reports, (Jan 20, 2015)
DOI: 10.1038/srep07895
Abstract
Different pathogens spreading in the same host population often generate
complex co-circulation dynamics because of the many possible interactions
between the pathogens and the host immune system, the host life cycle, and the
space structure of the population. Here we focus on the competition between two
acute infections and we address the role of host mobility and cross-immunity in
shaping possible dominance/co-dominance regimes. Host mobility is modelled as a
network of traveling flows connecting nodes of a metapopulation, and the
two-pathogen dynamics is simulated with a stochastic mechanistic approach.
Results depict a complex scenario where, according to the relation among the
epidemiological parameters of the two pathogens, mobility can either be
non-influential for the competition dynamics or play a critical role in
selecting the dominant pathogen. The characterisation of the parameter space
can be explained in terms of the trade-off between pathogen's spreading
velocity and its ability to diffuse in a sparse environment. Variations in the
cross-immunity level induce a transition between presence and absence of
competition. The present study disentangles the role of the relevant biological
and ecological factors in the competition dynamics, and provides relevant
insights into the spatial ecology of infectious diseases.
