Abstract

The impact of strong La Niña events on January–February north Atlantic Mean Sea Level Pressure is unknown, as these events have never been observed. Using large ensembles from the Met Office decadal prediction system, examples of strong La Niña events are simulated and the Atlantic response to these is found to be a positive North Atlantic Oscillation. This is very different to the wavelike response observed and simulated for strong El Niño events. The reason for this difference is traced to the fact that the December–January–February mean tropospheric teleconnection of ENSO to the north Atlantic dominates for strong El Niño events, while the stratospheric teleconnection dominates for strong La Niña events. The strength of the tropospheric pathway grows linearly and symmetrically with ENSO. The stratospheric pathway is the source of the asymmetry between January–February surface responses to strong El Niño and strong La Niña events.

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