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Contested Territory, Strategic Rivalries, and Conflict Escalation

, and . International Studies Quarterly, 50 (1): 145--167 (2006)

Abstract

After bringing together independent information on contested territory, rivalries, and conflict-escalation (militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) and war), we examine the timing of the temporal ordering of these three processes. Contrary to conventional expectations, we find the contested territory/militarized dispute rivalry ordering to be rare. Rivalries and contested territory often begin at the same time. Next, after setting up a unified model, we find the triadic combination of contested territory, contiguity, and strategic rivalry to be a strong explanatory combination for MIDs and war over time (1919-1992). We also control for other explanatory factors such as mixed regime-type and major power status. These findings provide strong support for arguments such as S.A. Vasquez's steps-to-war theory that specify these sources of conflict-escalation.

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