Attrition at a private, urban university: A longitudinal cohort study
Boston University, Boston, MA, PhD Thesis, (1995)Abstract
Attrition from higher education presents problems for both the student leaving and the institution from which they depart. A college degree has been found to enhance an individual's chances of success in life. Having a degree has become necessary for many occupations which previously had no such requirements. For the institution, student attrition presents fiscal issues such as loss of tuition income and additional recruiting costs. Further, there is the issue of the perceived failure of the institution to fulfill the goal of providing a quality education to admitted students. Guided by the theory of attrition developed by Tinto (1987) (which views attrition as the result of a longitudinal process where student background characteristics such as gender, class, ethnicity, and precollege ability influence later goals and behaviors), this study investigated variables that the existing literature suggests account for student attrition from higher education. The research design was longitudinal and discriminant analysis was used on data obtained from freshman cohorts entering between 1971 and 1988 to examine patterns of voluntary attrition among undergraduates at a private, urban university in the northeast of the United States. Analysis of precollege characteristics did not provide a good basis for distinguishing between students who remained and who withdrew. Correct prediction of withdrawal was possible less than two-thirds of the time. However, of the factors examined, high school academic achievement was the most important in discriminating between persisters and withdrawals. The analysis, in turn, showed that academic achievement following university matriculation was the most important college-based variable for predicting persistence and withdrawal. This finding was consistent for each period studied: prior to the sophomore year, before the junior year, and after the start of the junior year. Other variables impacting student retention included financial aid and living in university housing. The importance of academic performance raises issues for theories, like Tinto's, which have downplayed the role of grades in a student's decision to withdraw. The thesis demonstrates that heretofore the importance of academic performance (and its interaction with financial aid) for university student retention has not been sufficiently addressed. The determinants of academic performance and the role of financial aid in promoting persistence therefore need to be better understood.