Climate change, tick-borne encephalitis and vaccination needs in Sweden--a prediction model
Ecological Modelling, 110 (1):
55 - 63 (1998)EFSA.DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00041-6
Abstract
A future, global, climate change may indirectly lead to changes in the transmission and incidence of several vector-borne diseases. This paper presents an example of a modeling tool for projections of possible changes in the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), and the subsequent changes in vaccination needs, during the next half-century in Sweden. The model is based on the Hadley Center's regional temperature predictions for the year 2050, taking into account the IPCC IS92 `non-intervention scenario'. The model has been constructed into STELLA, a graphical dynamic-simulation, soft-ware program. The model project an increase in TBE incidence in Stockholm County, a high-endemic region in Sweden, during the next 50 years. According to this simplified model, the annual vaccination rate need to increase by 3-4-fold during the next half century in order to prevent the projected increases in TBE incidence in the region from a climatic change.