%0 Journal Article %1 Shiogama2011Observational %A Shiogama, Hideo %A Emori, Seita %A Hanasaki, Naota %A Abe, Manabu %A Masutomi, Yuji %A Takahashi, Kiyoshi %A Nozawa, Toru %D 2011 %I Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved. %J Nature Communications %K climatechange Amazon %P 253+ %R 10.1038/ncomms1252 %T Observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1252 %V 2 %X Climate warming due to human activities will be accompanied by hydrological cycle changes. Economies, societies and ecosystems in South America are vulnerable to such water resource changes. Hence, water resource impact assessments for South America, and corresponding adaptation and mitigation policies, have attracted increased attention. However, substantial uncertainties remain in the current water resource assessments that are based on multiple coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation models. This uncertainty varies from significant wetting to catastrophic drying. By applying a statistical method, we characterized the uncertainty and identified global-scale metrics for measuring the reliability of water resource assessments in South America. Here, we show that, although the ensemble mean assessment suggested wetting across most of South America, the observational constraints indicate a higher probability of drying in the Amazon basin. Thus, over-reliance on the consensus of models can lead to inappropriate decision making.

@article{Shiogama2011Observational, abstract = {Climate warming due to human activities will be accompanied by hydrological cycle changes. Economies, societies and ecosystems in South America are vulnerable to such water resource changes. Hence, water resource impact assessments for South America, and corresponding adaptation and mitigation policies, have attracted increased attention. However, substantial uncertainties remain in the current water resource assessments that are based on multiple coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation models. This uncertainty varies from significant wetting to catastrophic drying. By applying a statistical method, we characterized the uncertainty and identified global-scale metrics for measuring the reliability of water resource assessments in South America. Here, we show that, although the ensemble mean assessment suggested wetting across most of South America, the observational constraints indicate a higher probability of drying in the Amazon basin. Thus, over-reliance on the consensus of models can lead to inappropriate decision making.}, added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200}, author = {Shiogama, Hideo and Emori, Seita and Hanasaki, Naota and Abe, Manabu and Masutomi, Yuji and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Nozawa, Toru}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2716b567dcd3eb16a31a35092408a89cf/pbett}, citeulike-article-id = {12360315}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1252}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1252}, comment = {(private-note)The author gave a HC seminar, and it seemed interesting. The outliers might be the most observationally-preferred models!}, day = 29, doi = {10.1038/ncomms1252}, interhash = {4252907556e05572a105754a16b1f201}, intrahash = {716b567dcd3eb16a31a35092408a89cf}, issn = {2041-1723}, journal = {Nature Communications}, keywords = {climatechange Amazon}, month = mar, pages = {253+}, posted-at = {2013-05-23 15:03:54}, priority = {2}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.}, timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:33:28.000+0200}, title = {Observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1252}, volume = 2, year = 2011 }