%0 Journal Article %1 MacLachlan2015Global %A MacLachlan, C. %A Arribas, A. %A Peterson, K. A. %A Maidens, A. %A Fereday, D. %A Scaife, A. A. %A Gordon, M. %A Vellinga, M. %A Williams, A. %A Comer, R. E. %A Camp, J. %A Xavier, P. %A Madec, G. %D 2015 %I John Wiley & Sons, Ltd %J Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. %K euporias %N 689 %P 1072--1084 %R 10.1002/qj.2396 %T Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396 %V 141 %X This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216–0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a 3D-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.

@article{MacLachlan2015Global, abstract = {This article describes the {UK} Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 ({GloSea5}). {GloSea5} upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216–0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a {3D}-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. {GloSea5} shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El {Ni\~{n}o–Southern} Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, {GloSea5} shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.}, added-at = {2019-08-14T18:35:35.000+0200}, author = {MacLachlan, C. and Arribas, A. and Peterson, K. A. and Maidens, A. and Fereday, D. and Scaife, A. A. and Gordon, M. and Vellinga, M. and Williams, A. and Comer, R. E. and Camp, J. and Xavier, P. and Madec, G.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2a2b36c7930acb65b07704de7cf892ed3/karinawilliams}, citeulike-article-id = {13174351}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396}, day = 1, doi = {10.1002/qj.2396}, interhash = {2ce21e0d0d298471093392d89ca805b8}, intrahash = {a2b36c7930acb65b07704de7cf892ed3}, journal = {Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.}, keywords = {euporias}, month = apr, number = 689, pages = {1072--1084}, posted-at = {2014-05-30 16:14:52}, priority = {2}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd}, timestamp = {2019-08-14T18:35:35.000+0200}, title = {Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 ({GloSea5}): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396}, volume = 141, year = 2015 }