The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe using a consistent modelling approach across the different technologies. We compare the impacts for different global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +3 °C. Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10\%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20\%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge.
%0 Journal Article
%1 Tobin2018Vulnerabilities
%A Tobin, I.
%A Greuell, W.
%A Jerez, S.
%A Ludwig, F.
%A Vautard, R.
%A van Vliet, M. T. H.
%A Bréon, F. M.
%D 2018
%J Environmental Research Letters
%K wind climatechange demand energy solar renewables hydroelectricity
%N 4
%P 044024+
%R 10.1088/1748-9326/aab211
%T Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming
%U http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211
%V 13
%X The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe using a consistent modelling approach across the different technologies. We compare the impacts for different global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +3 °C. Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10\%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20\%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge.
@article{Tobin2018Vulnerabilities,
abstract = {The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe using a consistent modelling approach across the different technologies. We compare the impacts for different global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +3 °C. Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10\%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20\%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge.},
added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200},
author = {Tobin, I. and Greuell, W. and Jerez, S. and Ludwig, F. and Vautard, R. and van Vliet, M. T. H. and Br\'{e}on, F. M.},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2e06fee7ed21c6eb3f76d7ff276e0e179/pbett},
citeulike-article-id = {14562344},
citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211},
day = 01,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab211},
interhash = {8844e579bff080ca79ad70d428d5f11c},
intrahash = {e06fee7ed21c6eb3f76d7ff276e0e179},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {wind climatechange demand energy solar renewables hydroelectricity},
month = apr,
number = 4,
pages = {044024+},
posted-at = {2018-04-05 10:12:24},
priority = {2},
timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:39:21.000+0200},
title = {Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211},
volume = 13,
year = 2018
}