%0 Journal Article %1 Tversky:1974:Science:17835457 %A Tversky, A %A Kahneman, D %D 1974 %J Science %K psychology %N 4157 %P 1124-1131 %R 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 %T Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases %U https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17835457 %V 185 %X This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

@article{Tversky:1974:Science:17835457, abstract = {This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.}, added-at = {2019-10-10T21:53:30.000+0200}, author = {Tversky, A and Kahneman, D}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2ff27bac83c9e0472a700949a61b136a7/jkd}, description = {Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. - PubMed - NCBI}, doi = {10.1126/science.185.4157.1124}, interhash = {01155ba54ea9437ffb4ed5a243b8c9a1}, intrahash = {ff27bac83c9e0472a700949a61b136a7}, journal = {Science}, keywords = {psychology}, month = sep, number = 4157, pages = {1124-1131}, pmid = {17835457}, timestamp = {2019-10-10T21:53:30.000+0200}, title = {Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17835457}, volume = 185, year = 1974 }