Article,
An analysis of the database coverage of industrial accidents involving hazardous materials in Europe
Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 8 (2): 79--86 (1995)
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0950-4230(95)00008-O
Abstract
The purpose of the present analysis is to explore systematic ways
to address the problem of how many accidents involving hazardous
materials actually occur in Europe, and to make a realistic estimate.
A framework for predicting the total number of accidents was therefore
developed and applied. The analysis is based on 535 unique accident
descriptions (of which 107 were fatal accidents) from seven accident
databases covering the nine-year period from 1984 to 1992. The majority
(70\%) of the accident descriptions identified were found in one
source only. This indicates that, at best, about 30\% of all accidents
described may be found in a single database. Two models were developed:
the first model was based on ideas similar to 'chemical reaction
kinetics'; the second was more related to 'estimations of an animal
population'. The models predict an average of 87 accidents per year
in contrast to the observed average of 59 accidents per year. For
fatal accidents, the models predict an average of 14 accidents per
year, and the observed average is 12.
