Article,
Rally `round the union jack? Public opinion and the use of force in the United Kingdom, 1948-2001
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, 49 (2): 255-272 (June 2005)
Abstract
This paper provides the most comprehensive and extensive analysis to
date of the possibility of a ``rally `round the flag'' effect-an
increase in support for the government caused by involvement in
international conflict-in Britain, for the years 1948-2001. We use a
fractionally integrated time series model with an array of political
and economic controls. Our primary dependent variable is intention to
vote for the ruling party. The results confirm earlier studies that the
Falklands War generated a rally effect, but they provide a more
sophisticated understanding of the Gulf War rally. New results also
include the findings that participation in international crises which
stopped short of war did not engender rallies, and that there were no
rallies for the Korean, Suez, or Kosovo Wars. The findings indicate
that when they do occur rallies are heterogeneous in nature, that
rallies are most likely when there is intense and direct threat to the
national interest, that the relationship between multilateralism and
rallies in the British case is tenuous, and that rallies for the ruling
party are sometimes expressed through satisfaction with the prime
minister.
