%0 Journal Article %1 ISI:000247080100012 %A Hietel, Elke %A Waldhardt, Rainer %A Otte, Annette %D 2007 %J ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS %K German_marginal_rural_landscape IFZ RDA agricultural_land-cover_changes indicators socio-economic spatio-temporal_correlations statistical_model %N 3-4 %P 496-507 %T Statistical modeling of land-cover changes based on key socio-economic indicators %V 62 %X Landscapes are complex human-environment systems operating at spatio-temporal scales. Time is just as important as space when researching landscape changes. These changes are influenced by both environmental and socio-economic factors. However, correlations between environmental landscape attributes and land-cover patterns/changes are weakened by human activities such as intensification of agriculture eliminating the constraints of water and nutrient availability. Relations between changes in socio-economic organisation and land cover become apparent only over a longer period of time. Thus, in our study, we focused on socio-economic factors and their long-term effects on land cover. We present a method to (i) differentiate types of land-cover changes at district level, (ii) model correlations between socio-economic factors and land cover changes and (iii) identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes between 1945 and 1999 in a German marginal rural landscape. We employed agricultural land-cover data gained from the interpretation of multi-temporal aerial photographs. Based on these data, we differentiated types of land-cover changes, characterising different directions of agricultural land-cover changes in the observation time period. Various socio-economic aspects were considered by introducing data representing factors of demography, employment, economy, infrastructure, agricultural structure and policy. The relations between time series of land-cover data and of socioeconomic data were modeled with the help of redundancy analysis. Correlation coefficients were used to identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes. The results showed that a relatively high percentage of variance in land-cover data can be explained by socio-economic factors. The types of land-cover changes can be characterised by combinations of key socio-economic indicators. The indicators can be helpful to reconstruct land-cover changes in other regions. Thus, they provide a basis for the development of sustainable land-cover management systems. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

@article{ISI:000247080100012, abstract = {Landscapes are complex human-environment systems operating at spatio-temporal scales. Time is just as important as space when researching landscape changes. These changes are influenced by both environmental and socio-economic factors. However, correlations between environmental landscape attributes and land-cover patterns/changes are weakened by human activities such as intensification of agriculture eliminating the constraints of water and nutrient availability. Relations between changes in socio-economic organisation and land cover become apparent only over a longer period of time. Thus, in our study, we focused on socio-economic factors and their long-term effects on land cover. We present a method to (i) differentiate types of land-cover changes at district level, (ii) model correlations between socio-economic factors and land cover changes and (iii) identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes between 1945 and 1999 in a German marginal rural landscape. We employed agricultural land-cover data gained from the interpretation of multi-temporal aerial photographs. Based on these data, we differentiated types of land-cover changes, characterising different directions of agricultural land-cover changes in the observation time period. Various socio-economic aspects were considered by introducing data representing factors of demography, employment, economy, infrastructure, agricultural structure and policy. The relations between time series of land-cover data and of socioeconomic data were modeled with the help of redundancy analysis. Correlation coefficients were used to identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes. The results showed that a relatively high percentage of variance in land-cover data can be explained by socio-economic factors. The types of land-cover changes can be characterised by combinations of key socio-economic indicators. The indicators can be helpful to reconstruct land-cover changes in other regions. Thus, they provide a basis for the development of sustainable land-cover management systems. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, added-at = {2008-07-15T10:14:06.000+0200}, author = {Hietel, Elke and Waldhardt, Rainer and Otte, Annette}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2b919c0a25438519a4d957bcf77eed8e9/landscapeecol}, interhash = {51a87b657ec22d8411cac6644cf5db38}, intrahash = {b919c0a25438519a4d957bcf77eed8e9}, issn = {0921-8009}, journal = {ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS}, keywords = {German_marginal_rural_landscape IFZ RDA agricultural_land-cover_changes indicators socio-economic spatio-temporal_correlations statistical_model}, number = {3-4}, pages = {496-507}, timestamp = {2008-07-18T14:04:16.000+0200}, title = {Statistical modeling of land-cover changes based on key socio-economic indicators}, volume = 62, year = 2007 }