Article,
Multiplicative ARMA Models to Generate Hourly Series of Global Irradiation
Solar Energy, (1998)
Abstract
A methodology to generate hourly series of global irradiation is
proposed. The only input parameter which is required is the monthly
mean value of daily global irradiation, which is available for most
locations. The procedure to obtain new series is based on the use
of a multiplicative autoregressive moving-average statistical model
for time series with regular and seasonal components. The multiplicative
nature of this models enables us to capture the two types of relationships
observed in recorded hourly series of global irradiation: on the
one hand, the relationship between the value at one hour and the
value at the previous hour; and on the other hand, the relationship
between the value at one hour in one day and the value at the same
hour in the previous day. In this paper the main drawback which arises
when using these models to generate new series is solved: namely,
the need for available recorded series in order to obtain the three
parameters contained in the statistical ARMA model which is proposed
(autoregressive coefficient, moving-average coefficient and variance
of the error term). Specifically, expressions which enable estimatation
of these parameters using only monthly mean values of daily global
irradiation are proposed in this paper.
