Abstract
We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous
wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict
the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes
occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories
at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates
of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary,
probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through
the Effective Lead-Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the
arrival of the first S-wave and the time at which the probability
to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes
stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which
provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of
ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to
large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to
accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends
on distance and azimuth from the fault.
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