%0 Journal Article %1 Bentzien2014Decomposition %A Bentzien, Sabrina %A Friederichs, Petra %D 2014 %I John Wiley & Sons, Ltd %J Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. %K visualisation statistics forecasting verification %N 683 %P 1924--1934 %R 10.1002/qj.2284 %T Decomposition and graphical portrayal of the quantile score %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2284 %V 140 %X This study expands the pool of verification methods for probabilistic weather and climate predictions by a decomposition of the quantile score (QS). The QS is a proper score function and evaluates predictive quantiles on a set of forecast–observation pairs. We introduce a decomposition of the QS in reliability, resolution and uncertainty and discuss the biases of the decomposition. Further, a reliability diagram for quantile forecasts is presented. Verification with the QS and its decomposition is illustrated on precipitation forecasts derived from the mesoscale weather prediction ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Meteorological Service. We argue that the QS is ready to become as popular as the Brier score in forecast verification.

@article{Bentzien2014Decomposition, abstract = {This study expands the pool of verification methods for probabilistic weather and climate predictions by a decomposition of the quantile score (QS). The QS is a proper score function and evaluates predictive quantiles on a set of forecast–observation pairs. We introduce a decomposition of the QS in reliability, resolution and uncertainty and discuss the biases of the decomposition. Further, a reliability diagram for quantile forecasts is presented. Verification with the QS and its decomposition is illustrated on precipitation forecasts derived from the mesoscale weather prediction ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Meteorological Service. We argue that the QS is ready to become as popular as the Brier score in forecast verification.}, added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200}, author = {Bentzien, Sabrina and Friederichs, Petra}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/29781d585bb3bfe69eedcf0f5391646fd/pbett}, citeulike-article-id = {13589593}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2284}, day = 1, doi = {10.1002/qj.2284}, interhash = {bf3ad780df2450273c2027213b3fc237}, intrahash = {9781d585bb3bfe69eedcf0f5391646fd}, journal = {Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.}, keywords = {visualisation statistics forecasting verification}, month = jul, number = 683, pages = {1924--1934}, posted-at = {2015-04-23 10:49:10}, priority = {2}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd}, timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:34:53.000+0200}, title = {Decomposition and graphical portrayal of the quantile score}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2284}, volume = 140, year = 2014 }