Аннотация
Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they
be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I
review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an
important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low
Stakes Users, who don't need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who
need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who
need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who
wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who
quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations.
This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their
goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust
in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal
expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the
probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of
adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of
interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts.
Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of
applications.
Пользователи данного ресурса
Пожалуйста,
войдите в систему, чтобы принять участие в дискуссии (добавить собственные рецензию, или комментарий)