Abstract
We develop a large-scale deep learning model to predict price movements from
limit order book (LOB) data of cash equities. The architecture utilises
convolutional filters to capture the spatial structure of the limit order books
as well as LSTM modules to capture longer time dependencies. The proposed
network outperforms all existing state-of-the-art algorithms on the benchmark
LOB dataset 1. In a more realistic setting, we test our model by using one
year market quotes from the London Stock Exchange and the model delivers a
remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy for a variety of
instruments. Importantly, our model translates well to instruments which were
not part of the training set, indicating the model's ability to extract
universal features. In order to better understand these features and to go
beyond a "black box" model, we perform a sensitivity analysis to understand the
rationale behind the model predictions and reveal the components of LOBs that
are most relevant. The ability to extract robust features which translate well
to other instruments is an important property of our model which has many other
applications.
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