%0 Journal Article %1 Rousseau.etal2014 %A Rousseau, Alain N. %A Klein, Iris M. %A Freudiger, Daphné %A Gagnon, Patrick %A Frigon, Anne %A Ratté-Fortin, Claudie %D 2014 %J Journal of Hydrology %K Canada PMP precipitation %N 0 %P - %R http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.053 %T Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada %U http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169414008488 %X Summary Climate change (CC) needs to be accounted for in the estimation of probable maximum floods (PMFs). However, there does not exist a unique way to estimate \PMFs\ and, furthermore the challenge in estimating them is that they should neither be underestimated for safety reasons nor overestimated for economical ones. By estimating \PMFs\ without accounting for CC, the risk of underestimation could be high for Quebec, Canada, since future climate simulations indicate that in all likelihood extreme precipitation events will intensify. In this paper, simulation outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) are used to develop a methodology to estimate probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) while accounting for changing climate conditions for the southern region of the Province of Quebec, Canada. The Kénogami and Yamaska watersheds are herein of particular interest, since dam failures could lead to major downstream impacts. Precipitable water (w) represents one of the key variables in the estimation process of PMPs. Results of stationary tests indicate that \CC\ will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water, wmax, and the ensuing maximization ratio used for the estimation of PMPs. An up-to-date computational method is developed to maximize w using a non-stationary frequency analysis, and then calculate the maximization ratios. The ratios estimated this way are deemed reliable since they rarely exceed threshold values set for Quebec, and, therefore, provide consistent \PMP\ estimates. The results show an overall significant increase of the \PMPs\ throughout the current century compared to the recent past.

@article{Rousseau.etal2014, abstract = {Summary Climate change (CC) needs to be accounted for in the estimation of probable maximum floods (PMFs). However, there does not exist a unique way to estimate \{PMFs\} and, furthermore the challenge in estimating them is that they should neither be underestimated for safety reasons nor overestimated for economical ones. By estimating \{PMFs\} without accounting for CC, the risk of underestimation could be high for Quebec, Canada, since future climate simulations indicate that in all likelihood extreme precipitation events will intensify. In this paper, simulation outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) are used to develop a methodology to estimate probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) while accounting for changing climate conditions for the southern region of the Province of Quebec, Canada. The Kénogami and Yamaska watersheds are herein of particular interest, since dam failures could lead to major downstream impacts. Precipitable water (w) represents one of the key variables in the estimation process of PMPs. Results of stationary tests indicate that \{CC\} will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water, wmax, and the ensuing maximization ratio used for the estimation of PMPs. An up-to-date computational method is developed to maximize w using a non-stationary frequency analysis, and then calculate the maximization ratios. The ratios estimated this way are deemed reliable since they rarely exceed threshold values set for Quebec, and, therefore, provide consistent \{PMP\} estimates. The results show an overall significant increase of the \{PMPs\} throughout the current century compared to the recent past. }, added-at = {2014-11-07T15:27:59.000+0100}, author = {Rousseau, Alain N. and Klein, Iris M. and Freudiger, Daphné and Gagnon, Patrick and Frigon, Anne and Ratté-Fortin, Claudie}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/26520139bf35034c4c92656f5acb94031/marsianus}, description = {Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.053}, interhash = {de5472e56d99428ff32df7c5a1b714c1}, intrahash = {6520139bf35034c4c92656f5acb94031}, issn = {0022-1694}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology }, keywords = {Canada PMP precipitation}, number = 0, pages = { - }, timestamp = {2014-11-07T15:27:59.000+0100}, title = {Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada }, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169414008488}, year = 2014 }