%0 Journal Article %1 Zachary2012Probability %A Zachary, S. %A Dent, C. J. %D 2012 %I SAGE Publications %J Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability %K energy statistics renewables %N 1 %P 33--43 %R 10.1177/1748006x11418288 %T Probability theory of capacity value of additional generation %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x11418288 %V 226 %X This paper describes a new probability theory of the capacity value of additional generation in electrical power systems. A closed-form expression for the effective load carrying capability or equivalent firm capacity of a small additional capacity is derived. This depends on the mean and variance of the distribution of available additional generation capacity, and the shape of the distribution of the difference between available existing capacity and demand, near zero margin. The theory extends naturally to the case where the pre-existing background and additional resource are not statistically independent.

@article{Zachary2012Probability, abstract = {This paper describes a new probability theory of the capacity value of additional generation in electrical power systems. A closed-form expression for the effective load carrying capability or equivalent firm capacity of a small additional capacity is derived. This depends on the mean and variance of the distribution of available additional generation capacity, and the shape of the distribution of the difference between available existing capacity and demand, near zero margin. The theory extends naturally to the case where the pre-existing background and additional resource are not statistically independent.}, added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200}, author = {Zachary, S. and Dent, C. J.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/289e13ebd8798979bfe4a203730cd9dad/pbett}, citeulike-article-id = {12796399}, citeulike-attachment-1 = {Zachary-Dent_2012_JRR-33-43.pdf; /pdf/user/pbett/article/12796399/933795/Zachary-Dent_2012_JRR-33-43.pdf; 976a29fc56df64387c71b6a764fdd46e11198b29}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x11418288}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://pio.sagepub.com/content/226/1/33.abstract}, citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://pio.sagepub.com/content/226/1/33.full.pdf}, comment = {(private-note)Talks about various probabilistic stats (eg Equivalent Firm Capacity), as used by OFGEM eg in their 2013 Electricity Capacity Assessment (p87-88, footnote 107 cites this).}, day = 01, doi = {10.1177/1748006x11418288}, file = {Zachary-Dent_2012_JRR-33-43.pdf}, interhash = {e48e9111e3ab75eea1667e256d079f6c}, intrahash = {89e13ebd8798979bfe4a203730cd9dad}, issn = {1748-0078}, journal = {Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability}, keywords = {energy statistics renewables}, month = feb, number = 1, pages = {33--43}, posted-at = {2013-11-20 20:53:18}, priority = {2}, publisher = {SAGE Publications}, timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:33:42.000+0200}, title = {Probability theory of capacity value of additional generation}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x11418288}, volume = 226, year = 2012 }