Abstract
The study presented in this paper is part of a project where several
companies, utilities and institutions have been working together
to evaluate the limits and competitiveness of PV energy in Spain.
One of the tasks carried out in this project has been dedicated to
forecast possible future scenarios of grid-connected photovoltaic
buildings in Spain, considering technological, economic, social and
environmental aspects. To perform the study, a methodology based
in PV-scenarios has been developed. This methodology allows the researcher
to establish future scenarios defined by a set of parameters that
will determine the overall progress in grid-connected BIPV (building
integrated photovoltaics). In order to facilitate the analysis, the
ââScenariosPVââ software tool has been developed. This program
has proved very useful to deal with PV parameters management, future
scenarios analysis and detailed comparison. This methodology has
been applied to estimate future PV-scenarios in Southern Spain. In
an advanced scenario for the year 2020, the total grid-connected
BIPV installed surface could reach 2,480,000m2, supplying as much
as 1,872TJ per year, 10% of the electricity peak demand in the summertime
and providing up to 25,000 jobs.
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