%0 Journal Article %1 Palmer2004Development %A Palmer, T. N. %A Doblas-Reyes, F. J. %A Hagedorn, R. %A Alessandri, A. %A Gualdi, S. %A Andersen, U. %A Feddersen, H. %A Cantelaube, P. %A Terres, J. M. %A Davey, M. %A Graham, R. %A Délécluse, P. %A Lazar, A. %A Déqué, M. %A Guérémy, J. F. %A D\'ıez, E. %A Orfila, B. %A Hoshen, M. %A Morse, A. P. %A Keenlyside, N. %A Latif, M. %A Maisonnave, E. %A Rogel, P. %A Marletto, V. %A Thomson, M. C. %D 2004 %I American Meteorological Society %J Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. %K euporias %N 6 %P 853--872 %R 10.1175/bams-85-6-853 %T Development Of A European Multimodel Ensemble System For Seasonal-to-interannual Prediction (DEMETER) %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-85-6-853 %V 85 %X Abstract A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere?ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.

@article{Palmer2004Development, abstract = {Abstract A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as {DEMETER} (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The {DEMETER} system comprises seven global atmosphere?ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in {DEMETER} deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.}, added-at = {2019-08-14T18:35:35.000+0200}, author = {Palmer, T. N. and Doblas-Reyes, F. J. and Hagedorn, R. and Alessandri, A. and Gualdi, S. and Andersen, U. and Feddersen, H. and Cantelaube, P. and Terres, J. M. and Davey, M. and Graham, R. and D\'{e}l\'{e}cluse, P. and Lazar, A. and D\'{e}qu\'{e}, M. and Gu\'{e}r\'{e}my, J. F. and D\'{\i}ez, E. and Orfila, B. and Hoshen, M. and Morse, A. P. and Keenlyside, N. and Latif, M. and Maisonnave, E. and Rogel, P. and Marletto, V. and Thomson, M. C.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2e14d122f853e2f57db6bbd94a0115a94/karinawilliams}, citeulike-article-id = {12403894}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-85-6-853}, day = 1, doi = {10.1175/bams-85-6-853}, interhash = {31fc6e682872281e13689a26f7784651}, intrahash = {e14d122f853e2f57db6bbd94a0115a94}, journal = {Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.}, keywords = {euporias}, month = jun, number = 6, pages = {853--872}, posted-at = {2013-06-10 09:56:58}, priority = {2}, publisher = {American Meteorological Society}, timestamp = {2019-08-14T18:35:35.000+0200}, title = {Development Of A European Multimodel Ensemble System For Seasonal-to-interannual Prediction ({DEMETER})}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-85-6-853}, volume = 85, year = 2004 }