Аннотация
Landscapes are complex human-environment systems operating at
spatio-temporal scales. Time is just as important as space when
researching landscape changes. These changes are influenced by both
environmental and socio-economic factors. However, correlations between
environmental landscape attributes and land-cover patterns/changes are
weakened by human activities such as intensification of agriculture
eliminating the constraints of water and nutrient availability.
Relations between changes in socio-economic organisation and land cover
become apparent only over a longer period of time. Thus, in our study,
we focused on socio-economic factors and their long-term effects on
land cover. We present a method to (i) differentiate types of
land-cover changes at district level, (ii) model correlations between
socio-economic factors and land cover changes and (iii) identify key
socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes between 1945 and 1999
in a German marginal rural landscape.
We employed agricultural land-cover data gained from the interpretation
of multi-temporal aerial photographs. Based on these data, we
differentiated types of land-cover changes, characterising different
directions of agricultural land-cover changes in the observation time
period. Various socio-economic aspects were considered by introducing
data representing factors of demography, employment, economy,
infrastructure, agricultural structure and policy. The relations
between time series of land-cover data and of socioeconomic data were
modeled with the help of redundancy analysis. Correlation coefficients
were used to identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover
changes. The results showed that a relatively high percentage of
variance in land-cover data can be explained by socio-economic factors.
The types of land-cover changes can be characterised by combinations of
key socio-economic indicators. The indicators can be helpful to
reconstruct land-cover changes in other regions. Thus, they provide a
basis for the development of sustainable land-cover management systems.
(C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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