Zusammenfassung
A stochastic simulation model of hourly global solar radiation is
presented in this paper. It is developed by introducing the concept
of "time dependent frequency distribution" (TDFD) of hourly insolation
values. In this model the two most critical aspects of time series
simulation, i.e., the reproduced time series values which have the
appropriate time dependent frequency distribution for the parameter
being simulated and the correlation between successive values, are
taken into account. The elimination of the TDFD of the data and the
transformation of the data distribution to a Gaussian distribution
(required for the stationary time series analysis) were carried out
using a mapping technique. The autocorrelation function of the transformed
data showed that the produced time series is stationary. Then, an
antimapping coefficient matrix is developed, which provides a simple
yet an effective simulation device. The described model has been
applied in Athens (Greece) where hourly insolation data covering
a period of two years are used. The theoretical results obtained
using this simulation model, regarding both the TDFD and the correlation,
are in agreement with the measured data.
Nutzer